Brickwork Ratings expects Brent crude to average $95-$110 per barrel in the second half of FY27 under its base-case scenario, while a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could push prices to $120 or higher and add to India’s inflation and current account pressures.
New Delhi, Sept 2026 : Brent crude prices are likely to remain elevated through the second half of FY27 and could climb to $120 per barrel if geopolitical tensions in West Asia intensify, according to a report by Brickwork Ratings. The assessment highlights continuing risks to global energy supplies from disruptions in the region and the Strait of Hormuz.
In its base-case scenario, which carries a 55 per cent probability, Brickwork Ratings expects Brent crude to average between $95 and $110 per barrel during the second half of FY27. The scenario assumes that regional disruptions continue, while pipeline and shipping operations recover only partially.
Rajeev Sharan, Head of Research at Brickwork Ratings, said Brent futures had risen around 20 per cent in a month to about $109 per barrel on September 15, while physical Brent touched $130.80, indicating tight supply conditions.
Sharan said Brent could remain in a broad range of $100-$110 per barrel over the next one to two months, although the risks remain tilted towards higher prices. He said prices could approach $120 if supply disruptions worsen, while a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could bring them down towards $90.
The report also outlined the potential impact of higher crude prices on the Indian economy. Under its base-case assumptions, Brickwork Ratings estimates the rupee at Rs 94-98 against the US dollar, consumer price inflation at 5-5.5 per cent and real GDP growth at 6.6-7 per cent in FY27.
According to the report, a sustained $10 increase in crude oil prices could widen India’s current account deficit by around 0.3-0.4 per cent of GDP and raise inflation by 20-30 basis points over a year.
In its downside scenario, assigned a 30 per cent probability, Brickwork Ratings assumes a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz combined with attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf. Under such conditions, Brent could rise to $120 per barrel or higher, the report said.
Such a development could intensify inflationary pressures, weaken the rupee and weigh on economic growth, according to the rating agency. India, as a major oil importer, would face higher import costs and increased pressure on its external balances.
The report’s 15 per cent probability upside scenario assumes a durable ceasefire in West Asia and restoration of Saudi export routes. Under those conditions, Brent could decline to $80-$90 per barrel.
Lower crude prices would ease cost pressures for oil marketing companies, airlines and chemical producers, while potentially creating greater room for monetary policy easing in FY28.
The outlook comes as Brent was trading above $100 per barrel on September 28 amid continuing geopolitical uncertainty.
(Disclaimer :The content of this article is sourced from a news agency and has not been edited by the Mavericknews30 team.)
